As an amateur meteorologist, I cannot help but to keep my eye to the horizon.
Strangely, that’s not easy to do in our mountains. The horizon is lower than the mountains that encircle us. The result is that we are frequently not afforded the same amount of lead-time for weather that may be brewing on the horizon. By the time the ‘horizon’ to our southwest darkens, we have perhaps a minute or two before the storm bends the trees and rattles the shudders.
The same can be said about the horizon that is the future of the church. Sometimes we fail to see the waves of change in church life because of the mountains of distraction, or outright denial that we’ve taken shelter in. Regardless of how well we may see the horizon, the weather is indeed changing. It’s best, I think, for us to be mindful of the shifting winds and the approaching storm fronts.
When it comes to our context and church landscape, Larry Hovis is one prognosticator in whom I trust. Larry is no stranger to our church as he has preached in our pulpit and consulted with our deacons. He is a native of North Carolina and has ministered and pastored in a variety of settings. He has been serving as the executive coordinator for the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship of North Carolina for a number of years. He is an undeniably wise consultant for churches. He has a vantage point that enables him to see a big sky with wide horizons. I thought I’d share his ‘Predictions for the 2020s’ that was published in the March/ April edition of the Nurturing Faith Journal.
Predictions for the 2020s by Larry Hovis
“Road cycling is my hobby and my preferred method of maintaining physical fitness. One of the cycling blogs I read regularly contains an entry titled, “Predictions for the 2020s.” It inspired me to reflect on my predictions for Christianity in America in the new decade.
Here are my ideas for 10 developments the next decade will bring for the congregationally centered, denominationally oriented Christian communities, I know best.
Larger and Smaller Congregations
For two decades or more we have seen the rise of the very large church, or “megachurch.” In many ways, megachurches have greatly influenced our religious landscape. That trend will continue, though the oldest of them will begin to face the same challenges as older, more established congregations.
Also, the development of very small Christian communities, or “micro-churches” will accelerate. Just as people are less likely to join social groups (e.g. civic clubs), more
Christians will seek spiritual community in very small groups that meet in homes or other small spaces.
New Expressions of Church
Not limited to micro-churches, new expressions of church will become mainstream in the 2020s. Falling broadly under the umbrella of the “Fresh Expressions” movement that began in the Church of England, and now has spread to the U.S., these faith communities will become a more significant part of American Christianity, along with traditional churches.
Right-sizing Facilities
The 2020s will bring a wave of older, established churches that reduce the footprint of their current physical plants. They will follow the example of First Baptist in Winston-Salem, N.C., and others, and remove facilities to maintain as they discover ways to effectively minister to their congregations and communities with less square footage.
Diversifying Income Streams (Congregations):
Most churches have historically been financed through the offering plate, along with the occasional bake sale or pancake supper. In the coming years, congregations will discover additional streams of income such as rent, usage fees and partnerships with local organizations (e.g. businesses, nonprofits, schools).
Diversifying Income Streams (Ministers):
Most ministers (since the mid-20th century, in the kinds of churches I am most familiar with) have drawn their income exclusively from their churches as full-time employees. Increasingly, more ministers will become bi-professional or seek other additional ways to support their families.
Theological Education
Most ministers (see caveat above) have pursued college degrees followed by seminary education, most often the Master of Divinity degree. It is becoming increasingly difficult for aspiring pastors to leave home for three or four years to pursue a degree for which they incur large amounts of debt to accept a position that will pay a small salary with no health insurance.
New approaches to theological education are emerging that will become more widely accepted in the coming decade. The most effective theological schools will adapt both the curriculum and delivery system to address these changing needs. Those that don’t except for those with the most generous endowments, will die.
Narrowing Focus:
Part 1 (Congregations)
The mid-20th century witnessed the rise of the “program church,” which provided “something for everyone,” in the form of multiple programs, several days per week, on the church campus. That model is neither asked for by the culture nor sustainable for the congregation.
Churches that thrive in the next decade will discover that “less is more.” They will choose one form of worship they can offer with excellence, and they will reduce the number of programs to the few that are relevant and sustainable.
Narrowing Focus:
Part 2 (Denominations)
Like congregations, denominational organizations are no longer able to provide every service a constituent congregation needs. Those that survive will do fewer things but do them better than they have done them before, and better (or at least as well) as the “para-denominational” mission and church resource organizations that have become their competition.
Pastoral Care for Dying Congregation
Even with these shifts, many congregations will close their doors during the next decade. They will need pastoral care and administrative guidance from their denominational communities. Death does not mean defeat. None of the churches named in the New Testament are in existence today. Like all living things, churches have a life cycle. The most mature and healthy churches will die a good death and leave a lasting legacy for others to build upon.
The Church Lives On!
Even though some churches will die and those that survive will need to change, the Church (big “C”) will live on. The churches of the New Testament may not be around anymore, but their offspring are. God’s mission, through an identified people and structure, will flourish long after the next decade is over.”